What do we make of Mr. Modi’s speech announcing India’s pledges at COP 26?
The perception of India’s announcement depends on the benchmark used. Most interesting, and promising, are the 2030 energy transition parts of the pledge. The 2070 net zero target was diplomatically necessary – the last major economy to fall in the basket – but more a box to be checked under diplomatic pressure, and ideally should have been linked to developed countries reaching net zero before 2050. The net zero pledge will be much less consequential to what India actually does than the detailed sub-pledges.
Most interesting is the pledge to meet 50% of energy (but Mr. Modi probably meant electricity) from renewable sources by 2030. This is important because it means actual electricity generated, not just capacity built. It implies a constraint on the future share of coal power which becomes a cap when electricity demand plateaus.
(After publication of this blog, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a clarification on November 2, 2021 noting that this pledge referred to 50% of electricity capacity, not generation. The implications of this shift are discussed here.)
Along with Russian, Saudi and Australian pledges, India’s net zero target shows the weakness of putting too many eggs in the net zero basket. Countries should be asked to also say exactly what they will do now, not only what they hope to do later. By that benchmark, by providing 2030 details, India has done better than many.
India’s call for 1 trillion dollars finance is essentially a message that accountability is a two-way street; we should count money as carefully as we count emissions.
A possible hint of the future is tucked into the details: net zero railways by 2030 signals the promise of transforming India key sector by sector. This is much more administratively and politically acceptable than swallowing the whole carbon pie. India should do more of this.
We look forward to a formal submission by India, and to commenting further.
(Environmentality is a collection of ideas, perspectives, and commentary by researchers at the Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. Views and opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors. They do not represent institutional views.)
The updated pledge reveals insights into India’s approach: one of caution and a preference to ensure over-compliance rather than under-compliance of international targets.