What the updated NDC means for India's contribution to the climate crisis

India has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), building on the Prime Minister’s ‘Panchamrit’ pledge issued at Glasgow. The pledge retains the headline long-term goal of reaching net zero by 2070, which is now re-cast as a long-term goal.

The updated NDC has the virtue of simplicity. It resolves what were unclear and confusing statements in the Glasgow Panchamrit announcement. For example, a confusing pledge on reduction of 1 billion tons by 2030, without mention of a baseline or whether this is cumulative, has disappeared. It also streamlines the pledge on renewable and non-fossil fuel energy, by boiling down what were two somewhat confusing pledges, one in percentage terms and one in GW capacity terms, into one clear pledge. No one should shed any tears for these confusing and unclear pledges that have been discarded.

But what does this add up to in terms of India’s contribution to the climate challenge?

First, the carbon intensity pledge of 45% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 will likely require deep structural changes in the Indian economy to de-link carbon and GDP. Current policies may achieve this target but to exceed it will require additional policies. According to our analysis in Ideas for India, India’s emissions intensity has been dropping steadily compared to other countries even though India is at a lower level of GDP.

On electricity, the updated NDC commitments are clearer but marginally less stringent than before, but the real benchmark of progress is domestic policy, which goes further than the international pledge. The updated pledge states ‘about’ 50% cumulative installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030. This replaces a dual pledge of 50% renewable energy by 2030 and 500GW non-fossil capacity in the Panchamrit. There are two implications of this change.

• First, the new pledge is marginally less stringent because the 50% now refers to all non-fossil fuel sources (including nuclear) while the Panchamrit referred to only renewable electricity. Moreover, the specific 500GW number has been dropped, which could be seen as a limitation, but also avoids unduly locking the country into an absolute capacity target; a percentage articulation provides some flexibility to ramp up renewable energy based on future requirements.

• Second, and more salient, domestic policies and actions go further than the updated NDC pledge. As of today, India is already above 40% non-fossil fuel capacity, and the Central Electricity Authority has projected that just solar and wind (even excluding hydro) could amount to 50% of capacity by 2030, which, if realised, would exceed the updated NDC which includes all non-fossil fuel sources. Moreover, India already has a domestic target of 450GW renewable energy capacity, which serves as a domestic analogue to the now-removed Panchamrit 500GW non-fossil pledge. Most significant, India already has in place provisions to require that 43% of renewable electricity be purchased from renewable sources (including hydro) by 2030 in the form of a ‘renewable purchase obligation’. This generation-based policy goes beyond anything in the updated NDC or the Panchamrit -- it requires going beyond building new capacity, to actively manage the use of thermal versus renewable power.

To the international community, this approach suggests that, when benchmarking India, it should focus as much on what India does as on what India says. The updated pledge therefore also reveals insights into India’s approach: calibrating international targets below domestic policy signals caution, and a preference to ensure over-compliance rather than under-compliance of international targets; actions lead targets and not the other way around. It also suggests a somewhat surprising willingness to forego both the international praise that may come by setting international pledges to the limit allowed by national actions, and the additional leverage with which to demand enhanced emissions reductions from other countries.

---

(Environmentality is a collection of ideas, perspectives, and commentary by researchers at the Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. Views and opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors. They do not represent institutional views.)

---

---