Bracing for the storm

To tackle climate change, not only does India need to pivot into a low-carbon future, it also needs to step up as a leader of climate-vulnerable countries.

The year 2019 may be the one when climate change became a here-and-now problem that no responsible country can ignore. This is not, unfortunately, the same as saying that 2020 is the year when every country will finally address this challenge. It is in this gap between growing global realisation and continued national foot-dragging that India must locate its response to climate change.

In 2019, a drumbeat of scientific reports told an ever grimmer story of climate impacts. A report for the UN Secretary General’s Climate Action Summit finds 2015-2019 on track to be the warmest of any five-year period on record, at about 1.1°C above historical levels. This seemingly modest increase is enough to start destabilising natural systems. For example, sea levels are rising, both due to thermal expansion, and because the ice-sheets are melting. The extent of Arctic sea ice in summers has declined 12 per cent per year, and the two lowest levels of Antarctic summer sea ice were recorded in 2017 and 2018.

What do these indications of a relentless and accelerating warming trend mean for people around the world? Unfortunately, it signals the relentless undermining of natural conditions for stable human systems and ecosystems. For example, the acidity of our oceans has increased 26 per cent since the start of industrialisation as the oceans absorb more CO2, affecting ocean life and fisheries. Sea level rise places many coastal areas at risk of storm surges; a highly-cited report showed that much of South Mumbai will be under the high tide line by 2050. Wildfires, fuelled by heat waves and unusually dry conditions, swept California, the Amazon, Australia and even the Arctic in 2019. As I write this, I hear from a friend in Australia that smoke from fires in Sydney is affecting Melbourne, 900 km away. 2018 saw the highest number of tropical cyclones of any year in the 21st century. The Food and Agriculture Organization reports a steady increase in the number of undernourished people globally from 2015 to 2018, driven in part by climate variability and extreme weather. It was not supposed to be like this industrialisation and development were supposed to make us all more secure, but instead populations around the world face growing insecurity as the climate rebels. In some parts of the world, notably Europe, young people are rising up in an Extinction Rebellion’ to express their alarm over this planetary emergency.

The global political reaction has been underwhelming. Global CO2 emissions continue to grow at 2 per cent a year. At both the end of year climate talks and UN Secretary General’s Summit, countries declined to enhance their emissions limitation pledges (each country is required to submit a voluntary pledge under the Paris Agreement). The annual Emissions Gap Report produced by the UN shows the gap between what is required and what is being done is widening alarmingly, not shrinking. Key large countries, notably the United States, Brazil and Australia, are led by leaders publicly opposed to stimulating enhanced global action against climate change.

For the first two decades of the climate issue, India treated this as someone else’s problem. It had not contributed much to global emissions, certainly when benchmarked against our large population and low past emissions. But we were anxious that our development should not be burdened by efforts to limit global emissions. This displacement of burden by rich countries on to poor countries the climate equity debate continues to be a concern. But also, we have become far more aware that India is a deeply vulnerable country to climate impacts. As the papers in a new edited volume India in a Warming World show, India can expect to see declining crop yields, higher temperatures, coastal damage, disruption of cities and more violent weather events. Climate change is likely to become a headwind to India’s progress.

Despite having many other concerns, India can no longer afford to ignore climate change, when it considers its energy, development and foreign policies. The decade of the 2020s will lay the groundwork for how India manages the climate emergency.

First, the world of energy is poised to be totally transformed by the climate agenda. As countries gear up to address climate change, developing India’s economy in a low carbon direction is likely to be a competitive advantage. Will it cost more? Here, the good news is that after decades of slow shifts, renewable electricity is now cheaper than coal power in many parts of the world, including India. While issues about renewable energy being intermittent the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow remain, there are ways around this, including through ever cheaper electricity storage technologies. Moreover, because India is starting at a low level of development, it has not locked into a high carbon pathway. This could be of benefit as we develop our cities. India has the possibility of explo­ring cities built around public transport, ride-sharing, efficient building design and sensible urban planning as well as resilience to climate impacts. Doing so will also help limit air pollution. Pivoting to a low-carbon future will not be straightforward. Our broken electricity distribution system may get thoroughly disrupted by small-scale renewable energy. For example, industrial users, who provide financial stability to discoms, may chose to leave the system, with costs to the poorest. India has to plan for challenges such as these to ensure a low carbon future is both environmentally and socially beneficial.

Second, it is increasingly clear that whatever the global efforts, India will bear substantial impacts of climate change, for which the country has to prepare, in its own self-interest. This means rethinking our coastal development so that infrastructure is resilient to climate shocks, and coastal cities are protected. It means rethinking our agricultural system, to ensure it is resilient to droughts, unpredictable rainfall and pests. To do so may require rethinking our cropping choices, providing crop insurance and integrating climate change planning with landmark programmes such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. These are but illustrative; in areas as diverse as urban planning, agriculture, fisheries and water and forest management, climate change will need to be mainstreamed into development considerations.

Finally, climate change is now a diplomatic issue, and needs to be part of our strategic calculus. So far, India has successfully re-positioned itself as a relative leader, albeit among a class of global climate laggards. We have done this on the back of an aggressive solar energy policy and some clever initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance. But all these efforts are focused on changing diplomatic perceptions of India; they are not designed to enhance urgency or effectiveness of the global response. The focus is on ensuring there is continued differentiation’, in the parlance of climate talks, between the North and the South. While important, in the coming decade, it is time for India to go beyond this approach and step up as a leader of climate-vulnerable countries, to demand ever more urgent action from all. The large countries of the rapidly industrialising world, including China, Brazil and South Africa in addition to India, now have substantial global heft, with China the undoubted leader of the pack. With the US now firmly a laggard nation, this heft must be brought to bear on organising more effective and coordinated global action on climate change.

India faces many challenges in the decade ahead. Unfortunately, despite all the other pressing problems, we no longer have the luxury of setting aside climate change to be dealt with later. Increasingly, there is no development pathway for India innocent of climate change. But internalising climate change is a stiff challenge. It will require our departments and ministries to work with each other. It will require strategic thinking and planning for the future. And it will require working to cajole other countries into action. India will have to prepare for the climate headwind.

Originally published in India Today on January 3, 2020.

Environmentality is a collection of ideas, perspectives, and commentary by researchers at the Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. Views and opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors. They do not represent institutional views.

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