Stories to Watch: New climate study says flooding likely to intensify in South India

Earlier this month, Chennai experienced its heaviest rains in January in over a century. Such events could become more likely in the future. A new paper published in Nature Climate Change, studying the future change in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (defined as a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropical zone – the tropical rain belt) due to climate change, has concluded that the shift could lead to increased flooding in Southern India. The shift of the rain belt northwards could also lead to “greater drought stress” in south-eastern Africa, Madagascar, and Central America, which in turn could have adverse impacts on food security and biodiversity. The shift can be attributed to differential heating of the atmosphere over Asia and the North Atlantic Ocean caused by climate change, as stated by the authors.

It is important to note here that not every extreme weather event (such as the recent heavy rains in Tamil Nadu) can be attributed to climate change. This is due to the complex relationships between various atmospheric and anthropogenic factors. However, the science of attributing extreme weather events to climate change is constantly improving, and could have a significant impact on issues pertaining to adaptation and the assessment of loss and damage due to extreme events in the future. To read more about the science of attribution and its current state of development in India, please refer to Chapter 3 of India in a Warming World: Integrating Climate Change and Development.

Environmentality is a collection of ideas, perspectives, and commentary by researchers at the Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. Views and opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors. They do not represent institutional views.

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